If DEN visited CHA today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 51.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -12.9 points for CHA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.8

Net Rating

-9.1

118.9

Offensive Rating

106.7

115.1

Defensive Rating

115.7

100.7

Pace

98.2

DEN (Away) CHA (Home)

Recent Form

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

Head-to-Head History

CHA wins

DEN wins

2026-01-18 DEN 110 @ CHA 87 DEN W

2025-12-07 DEN 115 @ CHA 106 DEN W

2025-02-20 DEN 115 @ CHA 129 CHA W

2025-02-01 DEN 107 @ CHA 104 DEN W

2024-01-01 DEN 93 @ CHA 111 CHA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 51.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score