If DEN visited DET today, our model would lean Detroit Pistons with a 65.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -1.7 points for DET at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.8

Net Rating

2.1

118.9

Offensive Rating

114.6

115.1

Defensive Rating

112.5

100.7

Pace

100.3

DEN (Away) DET (Home)

Recent Form

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

DET 67-29 L1 Avg margin last 5: -6.0

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

DET wins

DEN wins

2026-02-03 DEN 121 @ DET 124 DET W

2026-01-27 DEN 109 @ DET 107 DEN W

2025-02-28 DEN 134 @ DET 119 DEN W

2024-12-28 DEN 121 @ DET 134 DET W

2024-01-07 DEN 114 @ DET 131 DET W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score