If DEN visited HOU today, our model would lean Houston Rockets with a 52.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +0.8 points for HOU at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.8

Net Rating

4.6

118.9

Offensive Rating

114.9

115.1

Defensive Rating

110.3

100.7

Pace

99.0

DEN (Away) HOU (Home)

Recent Form

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

Head-to-Head History

HOU wins

DEN wins

2026-03-11 DEN 93 @ HOU 129 HOU W

2025-12-20 DEN 115 @ HOU 101 DEN W

2025-12-15 DEN 125 @ HOU 128 HOU W

2025-11-21 DEN 112 @ HOU 109 DEN W

2025-04-13 DEN 126 @ HOU 111 DEN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 52.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score