If DEN visited IND today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -1.7 points for IND at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.8

Net Rating

2.1

118.9

Offensive Rating

115.4

115.1

Defensive Rating

113.3

100.7

Pace

100.8

DEN (Away) IND (Home)

Recent Form

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

IND wins

DEN wins

2025-12-03 DEN 135 @ IND 120 DEN W

2025-11-08 DEN 100 @ IND 117 IND W

2025-04-06 DEN 125 @ IND 120 DEN W

2025-02-24 DEN 125 @ IND 116 DEN W

2024-01-23 DEN 114 @ IND 109 DEN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score