If DEN visited LAL today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -2.6 points for LAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.8

Net Rating

1.2

118.9

Offensive Rating

115.0

115.1

Defensive Rating

113.8

100.7

Pace

98.3

DEN (Away) LAL (Home)

Recent Form

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

LAL 57-35 L4 Avg margin last 5: -8.8

L OKC

W HOU

Head-to-Head History

LAL wins

DEN wins

2026-03-14 DEN 125 @ LAL 127 LAL W

2026-03-05 DEN 113 @ LAL 120 LAL W

2026-01-20 DEN 115 @ LAL 107 DEN W

2025-03-19 DEN 108 @ LAL 120 LAL W

2025-03-14 DEN 126 @ LAL 131 LAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score