If DEN visited PHX today, our model would lean Phoenix Suns with a 65.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -6.8 points for PHX at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.8

Net Rating

-3.0

118.9

Offensive Rating

114.7

115.1

Defensive Rating

117.7

100.7

Pace

98.3

DEN (Away) PHX (Home)

Recent Form

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

PHX wins

DEN wins

2026-03-24 DEN 125 @ PHX 123 DEN W

2025-11-29 DEN 130 @ PHX 112 DEN W

2025-10-25 DEN 111 @ PHX 133 PHX W

2025-03-07 DEN 141 @ PHX 149 PHX W

2025-02-08 DEN 122 @ PHX 105 DEN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score