If DEN visited POR today, our model would lean Portland Trail Blazers with a 61.9% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -6.5 points for POR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.8

Net Rating

-2.7

118.9

Offensive Rating

111.0

115.1

Defensive Rating

113.7

100.7

Pace

99.5

DEN (Away) POR (Home)

Recent Form

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

POR wins

DEN wins

2026-04-06 DEN 132 @ POR 137 POR W

2026-03-22 DEN 112 @ POR 128 POR W

2026-02-20 DEN 157 @ POR 103 DEN W

2025-10-31 DEN 107 @ POR 109 POR W

2025-03-21 DEN 109 @ POR 128 POR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.9% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score