If DET visited DAL today, our model would lean Detroit Pistons with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -3.4 points for DAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.1

Net Rating

-1.3

114.6

Offensive Rating

113.7

112.5

Defensive Rating

115.0

100.3

Pace

100.2

DET (Away) DAL (Home)

Recent Form

DET 67-29 L1 Avg margin last 5: -6.0

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

Head-to-Head History

DAL wins

DET wins

2025-12-18 DET 114 @ DAL 116 DAL W

2025-11-01 DET 122 @ DAL 110 DET W

2025-03-21 DET 117 @ DAL 123 DAL W

2025-01-31 DET 102 @ DAL 117 DAL W

2024-04-12 DET 107 @ DAL 89 DET W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score