If DET visited DEN today, our model would lean Detroit Pistons with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +1.7 points for DEN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.1

Net Rating

3.8

114.6

Offensive Rating

118.9

112.5

Defensive Rating

115.1

100.3

Pace

100.7

DET (Away) DEN (Home)

Recent Form

DET 67-29 L1 Avg margin last 5: -6.0

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

Head-to-Head History

DEN wins

DET wins

2026-02-03 DET 121 @ DEN 124 DEN W

2026-01-27 DET 109 @ DEN 107 DET W

2025-02-28 DET 134 @ DEN 119 DET W

2024-12-28 DET 121 @ DEN 134 DEN W

2024-01-07 DET 114 @ DEN 131 DEN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score