If DET visited GSW today, our model would lean Detroit Pistons with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +1.1 points for GSW at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.1

Net Rating

3.2

114.6

Offensive Rating

114.2

112.5

Defensive Rating

111.0

100.3

Pace

99.4

DET (Away) GSW (Home)

Recent Form

DET 67-29 L1 Avg margin last 5: -6.0

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

GSW wins

DET wins

2026-03-20 DET 101 @ GSW 115 GSW W

2026-01-30 DET 131 @ GSW 124 DET W

2025-03-08 DET 110 @ GSW 115 GSW W

2025-01-09 DET 107 @ GSW 104 DET W

2024-01-05 DET 109 @ GSW 113 GSW W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score