If DET visited ORL today, our model would lean Detroit Pistons with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -2.3 points for ORL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.1

Net Rating

-0.2

114.6

Offensive Rating

108.9

112.5

Defensive Rating

109.1

100.3

Pace

96.5

DET (Away) ORL (Home)

Recent Form

DET 67-29 L1 Avg margin last 5: -6.0

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

Head-to-Head History

ORL wins

DET wins

2026-05-03 DET 94 @ ORL 116 ORL W

2026-05-01 DET 93 @ ORL 79 DET W

2026-04-29 DET 109 @ ORL 116 ORL W

2026-04-27 DET 88 @ ORL 94 ORL W

2026-04-25 DET 105 @ ORL 113 ORL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score