If DET visited PHI today, our model would lean Detroit Pistons with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -8.4 points for PHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.1

Net Rating

-6.3

114.6

Offensive Rating

111.0

112.5

Defensive Rating

117.3

100.3

Pace

98.1

DET (Away) PHI (Home)

Recent Form

DET 67-29 L1 Avg margin last 5: -6.0

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

Head-to-Head History

PHI wins

DET wins

2026-04-04 DET 116 @ PHI 93 DET W

2026-03-12 DET 109 @ PHI 131 PHI W

2025-11-14 DET 105 @ PHI 114 PHI W

2025-11-09 DET 111 @ PHI 108 DET W

2025-02-07 DET 112 @ PHI 125 PHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score