If DET visited TOR today, our model would lean Toronto Raptors with a 51.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -6.2 points for TOR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.1

Net Rating

-4.1

114.6

Offensive Rating

109.6

112.5

Defensive Rating

113.6

100.3

Pace

100.6

DET (Away) TOR (Home)

Recent Form

DET 67-29 L1 Avg margin last 5: -6.0

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

Head-to-Head History

TOR wins

DET wins

2026-03-31 DET 116 @ TOR 127 TOR W

2026-03-15 DET 108 @ TOR 119 TOR W

2026-02-11 DET 113 @ TOR 95 DET W

2025-04-04 DET 117 @ TOR 105 DET W

2025-01-11 DET 114 @ TOR 123 TOR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 51.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score