If GSW visited BKN today, our model would lean Golden State Warriors with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -10.5 points for BKN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.2

Net Rating

-7.3

114.2

Offensive Rating

108.1

111.0

Defensive Rating

115.4

99.4

Pace

96.7

GSW (Away) BKN (Home)

Recent Form

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

BKN 20-62 L3 Avg margin last 5: -13.8

L TOR

L MIL

L IND

W MIL

W WAS

Head-to-Head History

BKN wins

GSW wins

2026-03-25 GSW 106 @ BKN 109 BKN W

2025-12-29 GSW 120 @ BKN 107 GSW W

2025-03-06 GSW 121 @ BKN 119 GSW W

2024-11-25 GSW 128 @ BKN 120 GSW W

2024-02-05 GSW 109 @ BKN 98 GSW W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score