If GSW visited CHI today, our model would lean Golden State Warriors with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -4.8 points for CHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.2

Net Rating

-1.6

114.2

Offensive Rating

113.2

111.0

Defensive Rating

114.8

99.4

Pace

103.6

GSW (Away) CHI (Home)

Recent Form

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

Head-to-Head History

CHI wins

GSW wins

2026-03-10 GSW 130 @ CHI 124 GSW W

2025-12-07 GSW 123 @ CHI 91 GSW W

2025-02-08 GSW 132 @ CHI 111 GSW W

2025-01-23 GSW 106 @ CHI 131 CHI W

2024-03-07 GSW 125 @ CHI 122 GSW W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score