If GSW visited DAL today, our model would lean Golden State Warriors with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -4.5 points for DAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.2

Net Rating

-1.3

114.2

Offensive Rating

113.7

111.0

Defensive Rating

115.0

99.4

Pace

100.2

GSW (Away) DAL (Home)

Recent Form

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

Head-to-Head History

DAL wins

GSW wins

2026-03-23 GSW 137 @ DAL 131 GSW W

2026-01-22 GSW 115 @ DAL 123 DAL W

2025-12-25 GSW 116 @ DAL 126 DAL W

2025-02-23 GSW 102 @ DAL 126 DAL W

2025-02-12 GSW 107 @ DAL 111 DAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score