If GSW visited DEN today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +0.6 points for DEN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.2

Net Rating

3.8

114.2

Offensive Rating

118.9

111.0

Defensive Rating

115.1

99.4

Pace

100.7

GSW (Away) DEN (Home)

Recent Form

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

Head-to-Head History

DEN wins

GSW wins

2026-03-29 GSW 93 @ DEN 116 DEN W

2026-02-22 GSW 117 @ DEN 128 DEN W

2025-11-07 GSW 104 @ DEN 129 DEN W

2025-10-23 GSW 131 @ DEN 137 DEN W

2025-04-04 GSW 104 @ DEN 118 DEN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score