If GSW visited MIL today, our model would lean Golden State Warriors with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -0.8 points for MIL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.2

Net Rating

2.4

114.2

Offensive Rating

115.1

111.0

Defensive Rating

112.7

99.4

Pace

99.9

GSW (Away) MIL (Home)

Recent Form

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

Head-to-Head History

MIL wins

GSW wins

2026-01-07 GSW 113 @ MIL 120 MIL W

2025-10-30 GSW 110 @ MIL 120 MIL W

2025-03-18 GSW 93 @ MIL 104 MIL W

2025-02-10 GSW 125 @ MIL 111 GSW W

2024-03-06 GSW 90 @ MIL 125 MIL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score