If GSW visited NOP today, our model would lean New Orleans Pelicans with a 61.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -12.6 points for NOP at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.2

Net Rating

-9.4

114.2

Offensive Rating

109.7

111.0

Defensive Rating

119.1

99.4

Pace

99.8

GSW (Away) NOP (Home)

Recent Form

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

Head-to-Head History

NOP wins

GSW wins

2026-02-24 GSW 109 @ NOP 113 NOP W

2025-11-29 GSW 96 @ NOP 104 NOP W

2025-11-16 GSW 124 @ NOP 106 GSW W

2025-03-28 GSW 111 @ NOP 95 GSW W

2024-11-22 GSW 112 @ NOP 108 GSW W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score