If GSW visited PHI today, our model would lean Philadelphia 76ers with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -9.5 points for PHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.2

Net Rating

-6.3

114.2

Offensive Rating

111.0

Defensive Rating

117.3

99.4

Pace

98.1

GSW (Away) PHI (Home)

Recent Form

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

Head-to-Head History

PHI wins

GSW wins

2026-02-03 GSW 113 @ PHI 94 GSW W

2025-12-04 GSW 98 @ PHI 99 PHI W

2025-03-01 GSW 119 @ PHI 126 PHI W

2025-01-02 GSW 105 @ PHI 139 PHI W

2024-02-07 GSW 127 @ PHI 104 GSW W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score