If HOU visited ATL today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 51.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -5.7 points for ATL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.6

Net Rating

-1.1

114.9

Offensive Rating

113.7

110.3

Defensive Rating

114.8

99.0

Pace

103.4

HOU (Away) ATL (Home)

Recent Form

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

Head-to-Head History

ATL wins

HOU wins

2026-03-20 HOU 95 @ ATL 117 ATL W

2026-01-29 HOU 104 @ ATL 86 HOU W

2025-03-25 HOU 114 @ ATL 121 ATL W

2025-01-28 HOU 100 @ ATL 96 HOU W

2024-02-10 HOU 113 @ ATL 122 ATL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 51.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score