If HOU visited CHI today, our model would lean Houston Rockets with a 83.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -6.2 points for CHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.6

Net Rating

-1.6

114.9

Offensive Rating

113.2

110.3

Defensive Rating

114.8

99.0

Pace

103.6

HOU (Away) CHI (Home)

Recent Form

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

Head-to-Head History

CHI wins

HOU wins

2026-03-23 HOU 124 @ CHI 132 CHI W

2026-01-13 HOU 113 @ CHI 119 CHI W

2025-03-15 HOU 114 @ CHI 117 CHI W

2024-11-17 HOU 143 @ CHI 107 HOU W

2024-03-21 HOU 117 @ CHI 127 CHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 83.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score