If HOU visited CLE today, our model would lean Cleveland Cavaliers with a 63.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +4.6 points for CLE at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.6

Net Rating

9.2

114.9

Offensive Rating

121.0

110.3

Defensive Rating

111.8

99.0

Pace

100.3

HOU (Away) CLE (Home)

Recent Form

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

Head-to-Head History

CLE wins

HOU wins

2025-12-27 HOU 100 @ CLE 117 CLE W

2025-11-19 HOU 114 @ CLE 104 HOU W

2025-01-25 HOU 135 @ CLE 131 HOU W

2025-01-22 HOU 108 @ CLE 109 CLE W

2024-03-16 HOU 103 @ CLE 117 CLE W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score