If HOU visited NOP today, our model would lean Houston Rockets with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -14.0 points for NOP at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.6

Net Rating

-9.4

114.9

Offensive Rating

109.7

110.3

Defensive Rating

119.1

99.0

Pace

99.8

HOU (Away) NOP (Home)

Recent Form

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

Head-to-Head History

NOP wins

HOU wins

2026-03-29 HOU 134 @ NOP 102 HOU W

2026-03-13 HOU 105 @ NOP 107 NOP W

2026-01-18 HOU 110 @ NOP 119 NOP W

2025-12-18 HOU 128 @ NOP 133 NOP W

2025-03-08 HOU 117 @ NOP 146 NOP W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score