If HOU visited OKC today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +8.1 points for OKC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.6

Net Rating

12.7

114.9

Offensive Rating

119.2

110.3

Defensive Rating

106.6

99.0

Pace

100.9

HOU (Away) OKC (Home)

Recent Form

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

OKC wins

HOU wins

2026-02-07 HOU 112 @ OKC 106 HOU W

2026-01-15 HOU 111 @ OKC 91 HOU W

2025-10-21 HOU 124 @ OKC 125 OKC W

2025-04-04 HOU 111 @ OKC 125 OKC W

2025-03-03 HOU 128 @ OKC 137 OKC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score