If HOU visited PHI today, our model would lean Houston Rockets with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -10.9 points for PHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.6

Net Rating

-6.3

114.9

Offensive Rating

111.0

110.3

Defensive Rating

117.3

99.0

Pace

98.1

HOU (Away) PHI (Home)

Recent Form

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

Head-to-Head History

PHI wins

HOU wins

2026-04-09 HOU 102 @ PHI 113 PHI W

2026-01-22 HOU 122 @ PHI 128 PHI W

2025-03-17 HOU 137 @ PHI 144 PHI W

2024-11-27 HOU 122 @ PHI 115 HOU W

2024-01-15 HOU 115 @ PHI 124 PHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score