If HOU visited PHX today, our model would lean Phoenix Suns with a 54.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -7.6 points for PHX at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.6

Net Rating

-3.0

114.9

Offensive Rating

114.7

110.3

Defensive Rating

117.7

99.0

Pace

98.3

HOU (Away) PHX (Home)

Recent Form

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

PHX wins

HOU wins

2026-04-07 HOU 119 @ PHX 105 HOU W

2026-01-05 HOU 97 @ PHX 100 PHX W

2025-12-05 HOU 98 @ PHX 117 PHX W

2025-11-24 HOU 114 @ PHX 92 HOU W

2025-03-30 HOU 148 @ PHX 109 HOU W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 54.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score