If HOU visited POR today, our model would lean Portland Trail Blazers with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -7.3 points for POR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.6

Net Rating

-2.7

114.9

Offensive Rating

111.0

110.3

Defensive Rating

113.7

99.0

Pace

99.5

HOU (Away) POR (Home)

Recent Form

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

POR wins

HOU wins

2026-03-06 HOU 99 @ POR 106 POR W

2026-01-09 HOU 105 @ POR 111 POR W

2026-01-07 HOU 102 @ POR 103 POR W

2025-11-14 HOU 116 @ POR 140 POR W

2025-01-18 HOU 125 @ POR 103 HOU W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score