If HOU visited WAS today, our model would lean Houston Rockets with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -16.8 points for WAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.6

Net Rating

-12.2

114.9

Offensive Rating

105.8

110.3

Defensive Rating

118.0

99.0

Pace

101.8

HOU (Away) WAS (Home)

Recent Form

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

Head-to-Head History

WAS wins

HOU wins

2026-03-02 HOU 123 @ WAS 118 HOU W

2025-11-12 HOU 112 @ WAS 135 WAS W

2025-01-07 HOU 135 @ WAS 112 HOU W

2024-11-11 HOU 92 @ WAS 107 WAS W

2024-03-19 HOU 137 @ WAS 114 HOU W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score