If IND visited ATL today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 80.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -3.2 points for ATL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.1

Net Rating

-1.1

115.4

Offensive Rating

113.7

113.3

Defensive Rating

114.8

100.8

Pace

103.4

IND (Away) ATL (Home)

Recent Form

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

Head-to-Head History

ATL wins

IND wins

2026-01-31 IND 124 @ ATL 129 ATL W

2026-01-26 IND 116 @ ATL 132 ATL W

2025-10-31 IND 128 @ ATL 108 IND W

2025-03-08 IND 118 @ ATL 120 ATL W

2025-03-06 IND 118 @ ATL 124 ATL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 80.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score