If IND visited BKN today, our model would lean Indiana Pacers with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -9.4 points for BKN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.1

Net Rating

-7.3

115.4

Offensive Rating

108.1

113.3

Defensive Rating

115.4

100.8

Pace

96.7

IND (Away) BKN (Home)

Recent Form

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

BKN 20-62 L3 Avg margin last 5: -13.8

L TOR

L MIL

L IND

W MIL

W WAS

Head-to-Head History

BKN wins

IND wins

2026-04-09 IND 123 @ BKN 94 IND W

2026-02-11 IND 115 @ BKN 110 IND W

2025-11-05 IND 112 @ BKN 103 IND W

2025-03-22 IND 103 @ BKN 108 BKN W

2025-03-20 IND 99 @ BKN 105 BKN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score