If IND visited CHA today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -11.2 points for CHA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.1

Net Rating

-9.1

115.4

Offensive Rating

106.7

113.3

Defensive Rating

115.7

100.8

Pace

98.2

IND (Away) CHA (Home)

Recent Form

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

Head-to-Head History

CHA wins

IND wins

2026-04-03 IND 108 @ CHA 129 CHA W

2026-02-26 IND 133 @ CHA 109 IND W

2026-01-08 IND 114 @ CHA 112 IND W

2025-11-19 IND 118 @ CHA 127 CHA W

2025-04-02 IND 105 @ CHA 119 CHA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score