If IND visited DET today, our model would lean Detroit Pistons with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +0.0 points for DET at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.1

Net Rating

2.1

115.4

Offensive Rating

114.6

113.3

Defensive Rating

112.5

100.8

Pace

100.3

IND (Away) DET (Home)

Recent Form

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

DET 67-29 L1 Avg margin last 5: -6.0

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

DET wins

IND wins

2026-04-12 IND 133 @ DET 121 IND W

2026-01-17 IND 78 @ DET 121 DET W

2025-11-24 IND 122 @ DET 117 IND W

2025-11-17 IND 112 @ DET 127 DET W

2025-01-29 IND 119 @ DET 133 DET W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score