If IND visited LAL today, our model would lean Los Angeles Lakers with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -0.9 points for LAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.1

Net Rating

1.2

115.4

Offensive Rating

115.0

113.3

Defensive Rating

113.8

100.8

Pace

98.3

IND (Away) LAL (Home)

Recent Form

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

LAL 57-35 L4 Avg margin last 5: -8.8

L OKC

W HOU

Head-to-Head History

LAL wins

IND wins

2026-03-25 IND 137 @ LAL 130 IND W

2026-03-06 IND 117 @ LAL 128 LAL W

2025-03-26 IND 120 @ LAL 119 IND W

2025-02-08 IND 117 @ LAL 124 LAL W

2024-03-29 IND 90 @ LAL 109 LAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score