If IND visited MEM today, our model would lean Memphis Grizzlies with a 51.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +2.6 points for MEM at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.1

Net Rating

4.7

115.4

Offensive Rating

117.2

113.3

Defensive Rating

112.6

100.8

Pace

103.7

IND (Away) MEM (Home)

Recent Form

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

Head-to-Head History

MEM wins

IND wins

2026-03-01 IND 125 @ MEM 106 IND W

2025-10-25 IND 103 @ MEM 128 MEM W

2025-02-20 IND 113 @ MEM 127 MEM W

2024-12-01 IND 121 @ MEM 136 MEM W

2024-01-28 IND 110 @ MEM 116 MEM W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 51.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score