If IND visited NOP today, our model would lean New Orleans Pelicans with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -11.5 points for NOP at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.1

Net Rating

-9.4

115.4

Offensive Rating

109.7

113.3

Defensive Rating

119.1

100.8

Pace

99.8

IND (Away) NOP (Home)

Recent Form

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

Head-to-Head History

NOP wins

IND wins

2026-01-16 IND 119 @ NOP 127 NOP W

2025-12-20 IND 109 @ NOP 128 NOP W

2024-12-15 IND 104 @ NOP 119 NOP W

2024-11-25 IND 110 @ NOP 114 NOP W

2024-11-01 IND 118 @ NOP 125 NOP W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score