If IND visited PHX today, our model would lean Phoenix Suns with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -5.1 points for PHX at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.1

Net Rating

-3.0

115.4

Offensive Rating

114.7

113.3

Defensive Rating

117.7

100.8

Pace

98.3

IND (Away) PHX (Home)

Recent Form

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

PHX wins

IND wins

2026-03-12 IND 123 @ PHX 108 IND W

2025-11-13 IND 98 @ PHX 133 PHX W

2025-01-04 IND 108 @ PHX 126 PHX W

2024-12-19 IND 120 @ PHX 111 IND W

2024-01-26 IND 131 @ PHX 133 PHX W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score