If IND visited POR today, our model would lean Portland Trail Blazers with a 80.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -4.8 points for POR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.1

Net Rating

-2.7

115.4

Offensive Rating

111.0

113.3

Defensive Rating

113.7

100.8

Pace

99.5

IND (Away) POR (Home)

Recent Form

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

POR wins

IND wins

2026-03-18 IND 127 @ POR 119 IND W

2026-03-08 IND 111 @ POR 131 POR W

2025-02-04 IND 89 @ POR 112 POR W

2024-11-27 IND 114 @ POR 121 POR W

2024-01-19 IND 115 @ POR 118 POR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 80.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score