If IND visited SAS today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -4.9 points for SAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.1

Net Rating

-2.8

115.4

Offensive Rating

113.5

113.3

Defensive Rating

116.3

100.8

Pace

100.1

IND (Away) SAS (Home)

Recent Form

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

SAS wins

IND wins

2026-03-21 IND 119 @ SAS 134 SAS W

2026-01-02 IND 123 @ SAS 113 IND W

2024-03-03 IND 105 @ SAS 117 SAS W

2023-11-06 IND 111 @ SAS 152 SAS W

2023-03-02 IND 99 @ SAS 110 SAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score