If LAL visited DAL today, our model would lean Los Angeles Lakers with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -2.5 points for DAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

1.2

Net Rating

-1.3

115.0

Offensive Rating

113.7

113.8

Defensive Rating

115.0

98.3

Pace

100.2

LAL (Away) DAL (Home)

Recent Form

LAL 57-35 L4 Avg margin last 5: -8.8

L OKC

W HOU

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

Head-to-Head History

DAL wins

LAL wins

2026-04-05 LAL 128 @ DAL 134 DAL W

2026-02-12 LAL 104 @ DAL 124 DAL W

2026-01-24 LAL 116 @ DAL 110 LAL W

2025-11-28 LAL 119 @ DAL 129 DAL W

2025-04-09 LAL 112 @ DAL 97 LAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score