If LAL visited NOP today, our model would lean Los Angeles Lakers with a 73.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -10.6 points for NOP at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

1.2

Net Rating

-9.4

115.0

Offensive Rating

109.7

113.8

Defensive Rating

119.1

98.3

Pace

99.8

LAL (Away) NOP (Home)

Recent Form

LAL 57-35 L4 Avg margin last 5: -8.8

L OKC

W HOU

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

Head-to-Head History

NOP wins

LAL wins

2026-03-03 LAL 101 @ NOP 110 NOP W

2026-01-06 LAL 111 @ NOP 103 LAL W

2025-11-30 LAL 121 @ NOP 133 NOP W

2025-11-14 LAL 118 @ NOP 104 LAL W

2025-04-04 LAL 108 @ NOP 124 NOP W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 73.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score