If LAL visited ORL today, our model would lean Los Angeles Lakers with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -1.4 points for ORL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

1.2

Net Rating

-0.2

115.0

Offensive Rating

108.9

113.8

Defensive Rating

109.1

98.3

Pace

96.5

LAL (Away) ORL (Home)

Recent Form

LAL 57-35 L4 Avg margin last 5: -8.8

L OKC

W HOU

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

Head-to-Head History

ORL wins

LAL wins

2026-03-21 LAL 105 @ ORL 104 LAL W

2026-02-24 LAL 110 @ ORL 109 LAL W

2025-03-24 LAL 106 @ ORL 118 ORL W

2024-11-21 LAL 119 @ ORL 118 LAL W

2023-11-04 LAL 101 @ ORL 120 ORL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score