If LAL visited POR today, our model would lean Los Angeles Lakers with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -3.9 points for POR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

1.2

Net Rating

-2.7

115.0

Offensive Rating

111.0

113.8

Defensive Rating

113.7

98.3

Pace

99.5

LAL (Away) POR (Home)

Recent Form

LAL 57-35 L4 Avg margin last 5: -8.8

L OKC

W HOU

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

POR wins

LAL wins

2026-01-17 LAL 116 @ POR 132 POR W

2025-11-03 LAL 123 @ POR 115 LAL W

2025-10-27 LAL 122 @ POR 108 LAL W

2025-04-13 LAL 81 @ POR 109 POR W

2025-02-20 LAL 110 @ POR 102 LAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score