If LAL visited UTA today, our model would lean Los Angeles Lakers with a 77.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -10.4 points for UTA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

1.2

Net Rating

-9.2

115.0

Offensive Rating

110.2

113.8

Defensive Rating

119.4

98.3

Pace

100.8

LAL (Away) UTA (Home)

Recent Form

LAL 57-35 L4 Avg margin last 5: -8.8

L OKC

W HOU

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

UTA wins

LAL wins

2026-04-12 LAL 107 @ UTA 131 UTA W

2025-12-18 LAL 143 @ UTA 135 LAL W

2025-11-23 LAL 108 @ UTA 106 LAL W

2025-11-18 LAL 126 @ UTA 140 UTA W

2025-02-12 LAL 119 @ UTA 131 UTA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 77.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score