If MEM visited CHA today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -13.8 points for CHA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.7

Net Rating

-9.1

117.2

Offensive Rating

106.7

112.6

Defensive Rating

115.7

103.7

Pace

98.2

MEM (Away) CHA (Home)

Recent Form

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

Head-to-Head History

CHA wins

MEM wins

2026-03-21 MEM 101 @ CHA 124 CHA W

2026-01-28 MEM 112 @ CHA 97 MEM W

2025-04-08 MEM 124 @ CHA 100 MEM W

2025-01-22 MEM 120 @ CHA 132 CHA W

2024-03-13 MEM 110 @ CHA 98 MEM W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score