If MEM visited SAS today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -7.5 points for SAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.7

Net Rating

-2.8

117.2

Offensive Rating

113.5

112.6

Defensive Rating

116.3

103.7

Pace

100.1

MEM (Away) SAS (Home)

Recent Form

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

SAS wins

MEM wins

2026-03-25 MEM 123 @ SAS 98 MEM W

2026-01-06 MEM 105 @ SAS 106 SAS W

2025-12-02 MEM 119 @ SAS 126 SAS W

2025-11-18 MEM 101 @ SAS 111 SAS W

2025-03-01 MEM 130 @ SAS 128 MEM W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score