If MEM visited UTA today, our model would lean Utah Jazz with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -13.9 points for UTA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.7

Net Rating

-9.2

117.2

Offensive Rating

110.2

112.6

Defensive Rating

119.4

103.7

Pace

100.8

MEM (Away) UTA (Home)

Recent Form

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

UTA wins

MEM wins

2026-04-10 MEM 101 @ UTA 147 UTA W

2026-02-20 MEM 114 @ UTA 123 UTA W

2025-12-23 MEM 137 @ UTA 128 MEM W

2025-12-12 MEM 130 @ UTA 126 MEM W

2025-03-25 MEM 140 @ UTA 103 MEM W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score