If MEM visited WAS today, our model would lean Washington Wizards with a 65.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -16.9 points for WAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.7

Net Rating

-12.2

117.2

Offensive Rating

105.8

112.6

Defensive Rating

118.0

103.7

Pace

101.8

MEM (Away) WAS (Home)

Recent Form

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

Head-to-Head History

WAS wins

MEM wins

2025-12-28 MEM 112 @ WAS 116 WAS W

2025-12-20 MEM 130 @ WAS 122 MEM W

2024-12-08 MEM 140 @ WAS 112 MEM W

2024-11-08 MEM 104 @ WAS 128 WAS W

2024-03-12 MEM 97 @ WAS 109 WAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score