If MIL visited ATL today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -3.5 points for ATL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.4

Net Rating

-1.1

115.1

Offensive Rating

113.7

112.7

Defensive Rating

114.8

99.9

Pace

103.4

MIL (Away) ATL (Home)

Recent Form

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

Head-to-Head History

ATL wins

MIL wins

2026-03-14 MIL 99 @ ATL 122 ATL W

2026-03-04 MIL 131 @ ATL 113 MIL W

2026-01-19 MIL 112 @ ATL 110 MIL W

2025-03-30 MIL 145 @ ATL 124 MIL W

2025-03-04 MIL 127 @ ATL 121 MIL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score