If MIL visited DAL today, our model would lean Dallas Mavericks with a 63.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -3.7 points for DAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.4

Net Rating

-1.3

115.1

Offensive Rating

113.7

112.7

Defensive Rating

115.0

99.9

Pace

100.2

MIL (Away) DAL (Home)

Recent Form

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

Head-to-Head History

DAL wins

MIL wins

2026-03-31 MIL 99 @ DAL 123 DAL W

2025-11-10 MIL 116 @ DAL 114 MIL W

2025-03-05 MIL 107 @ DAL 137 DAL W

2025-03-01 MIL 132 @ DAL 117 MIL W

2024-02-03 MIL 129 @ DAL 117 MIL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score